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We expect NG to trend upwards today with a 75% chance.

Based on the last 12 Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash events in Germany, we expect NG to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect NG to trend upwards 48 hours following the event release at 21 Feb 08:30 if the released value is > 44.8. A price movement of 6 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

22 Aug 07:30
21 Jun 07:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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BCHEUR is quickly approaching 356.8700. We expect either a breakout through this line, or a rebound.

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