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We expect NG to trend downwards today.

Based on the last 12 BoC Interest Rate Decision events in Canada, we expect NG to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 70% chance of this. We expect NG to trend downwards 48 hours following the event release at 10 Mar 15:00 if the released value is = 0.25%. A price movement of 9 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

20 Jan 15:00
09 Sep 14:00
15 Jul 14:00
03 Jun 14:00
22 Jan 15:00
04 Dec 15:00
30 Oct 14:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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