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We expect EURUSD to trend downwards today with a 75% chance.

Based on the last 12 Core Inflation Rate YoY events in United States, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 10 Oct 12:30 if the released value is > 2.4%. A price movement of 36 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

13 Aug 12:30
11 Jul 12:30
13 Feb 13:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect a $2,260 movement on GBPUSD within 48 hours following the event release at 10 Oct 12:30.

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We expect a $90 movement on AUDUSD within 4 hours following the event release at 10 Oct 12:30.

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