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We expect EURUSD to trend downwards today with a 66.67% chance.

Based on the last 12 Retail Sales MoM events in Australia, we expect EURUSD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 04 Oct 01:30 if the released value is < 0.5%. A price movement of 15 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

04 Jul 01:30
04 Jun 01:30
07 Mar 00:30
05 Feb 00:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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Be very careful of upcoming volatility. We expect a $130.774 movement on LE.

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