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We expect ES to trend upwards today with a 75% chance.

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect ES to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. This may happen if the released value is > ¥-77.6B

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

17 Mar 23:50
18 Feb 23:50
17 Dec 23:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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