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We expect ES to trend downwards today.

Based on the last 12 BoC Interest Rate Decision events in Canada, we expect ES to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 83.33% chance of this. We expect ES to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 22 Jan 15:00 if the released value is = 1.75%. A price movement of 2,825 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

04 Dec 15:00
30 Oct 14:00
10 Jul 14:00
29 May 14:00
24 Apr 14:00
06 Mar 15:00
09 Jan 15:00
24 Oct 14:00
11 Jul 14:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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