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We expect BP to trend downwards today with a 70% chance.

Based on the last 12 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI events in United States, we expect BP to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 70% chance of this. We expect BP to trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 03 Sep 14:00 if the released value is > 57. A price movement of 0 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

05 Aug 14:00
06 Jul 14:00
05 May 14:00
03 Apr 14:00
05 Nov 15:00
05 Sep 14:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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Support line breached by FRA40. This price has been tested at least twice before.

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