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We expect AUDUSD to trend upwards today with a 66.67% chance.

Based on the last 12 RBA Interest Rate Decision events in Australia, we expect AUDUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. This will happen if the released value is = 1%

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

02 Jul 04:30
07 May 04:30
05 Feb 03:30
04 Dec 03:30
06 Nov 03:30
04 Sep 04:30
07 Aug 04:30
03 Jul 04:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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After experiencing a 7.4% bearish move in the space of 13 days, nobody knows where FRA40 is headed.

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We expect a $200 movement on NZDUSD within 12 hours following the event release at 06 Aug 04:30.

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