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We expect a $278 movement on USDCHF within the next 2 hours.

Based on past Japan Balance of Trade news events there is a 77.78% chance of USDCHF trending downwards. We expect this to happen because the released value is < ¥-1509.7B. A price movement of 27 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

15 Jun 23:50
19 Apr 23:50
15 Dec 23:50
19 Oct 23:50
15 Sep 23:50
20 Jul 23:50
15 Jun 23:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect ES to trend downwards for the next 4 hours.

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FRA40 – breach of a trending support line that has been tested at least twice before.

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