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We expect a 25 pip movement on FV within 48 hours following the event release.

Based on the last 12 BoJ Interest Rate Decision events in Japan, we expect a 25 pip movement on FV within 48 hours following the event release at 22 May 03:00 UTC. We expect FV to trend upwards 48 hours following the event release at 22 May 03:00 UTC if the released value is = -0.1%

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

27 Apr 04:00
21 Jan 03:00
31 Oct 04:00
19 Sep 03:00
25 Apr 03:00
15 Mar 03:00
23 Jan 03:00
20 Dec 03:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect a $5,421.12 movement on EMD within 4 hours following the event release at 21 May 23:30.

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We expect HE to trend upwards with a 66.67% chance.

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