Based on the last 12 ECB Interest Rate Decision events in Euro Area, we expect a 21250 pip movement on NIY within 4 hours following the event release at 2023-05-04 12:15. We expect NIY to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 2023-05-04 12:15 if the released value is = 3.75%
Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion
15 Dec 13:15 |
27 Oct 12:15 |
08 Sep 12:15 |
09 Jun 11:45 |
14 Apr 11:45 |
10 Mar 12:45 |
03 Feb 12:45 |
16 Dec 12:45 |
All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).
