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We expect a 1 pip movement on ED within 4 hours following the event release.

Based on the last 12 Unemployment Rate events in Euro Area, we expect a 1 pip movement on ED within 4 hours following the event release at 03 Mar 10:00 UTC. We expect ED to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 03 Mar 10:00 UTC if the released value is = 7.4%

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

09 Jan 10:00
29 Nov 10:00
01 Apr 09:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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