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We expect a $0.15 movement on NG within 12 hours following the event release at 21 Jan 23:30.

Based on the last 12 Inflation Rate YoY events in Japan, we expect a $0.15 movement on NG within 12 hours following the event release at 21 Jan 23:30. We expect NG to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 21 Jan 23:30 if the released value is > -1%

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

17 Sep 23:30
20 Aug 23:30
23 Jan 23:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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FRA40 is quickly approaching 22.8900. We expect either a breakout through this line, or a rebound.

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