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We expect 6M to trend upwards today with a 87.5% chance.

We expect 6M to trend upwards later today. Based on these past United States Retail Sales MoM news events there is a 87.5% chance of this. We expect this to happen if the released value is < 1.1%. A price movement of 0 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

15 Jan 13:30
16 Dec 13:30
17 Nov 13:30
16 Sep 12:30
14 Aug 12:30
15 May 12:30
17 Mar 12:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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