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We expect 6M to trend upwards today with a 80% chance.

Based on the last 12 Retail Sales MoM events in United States, we expect 6M to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect 6M to trend upwards 12 hours following the event release at 13 Sep 12:30 if the released value is > 0.2%. A price movement of 0 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

15 Aug 12:30
18 Apr 12:30
11 Mar 12:30
15 Nov 13:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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