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We expect 6M to trend downwards today with a 75% chance.

Based on the last 12 Business Confidence events in Euro Area, we expect 6M to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. This may happen if the released value is > -0.14

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

30 Oct 10:00
27 Feb 10:00
29 Nov 10:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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