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We expect 6C to trend downwards today.

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect 6C to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 83.33% chance of this. We expect 6C to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 16 Feb 23:50 if the released value is < ¥-600B. A price movement of 0 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

15 Dec 23:50
18 Oct 23:50
19 Jul 23:50
20 May 23:50
19 Apr 23:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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