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There is a 80% chance of USDCHF trending downwards

Based on past Japan Balance of Trade news events there is a 80% chance of USDCHF trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is > ¥301B. A price movement of 19 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

17 Jul 23:50
18 Jun 23:50
16 Apr 23:50
17 Mar 23:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect a $0.028 movement on AC within 4 hours following the event release at 19 Nov 23:50.

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Breach of support could mean a start of a bearish trend on USD/JPY

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