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There is a 80% chance of BO trending downwards

Based on past United States ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events there is a 80% chance of BO trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is > 54.5. A price movement of 23 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

05 Nov 15:00
05 Sep 14:00
05 Jun 14:00
05 Mar 15:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect a $310 movement on NZDUSD within 4 hours following the event release at 04 Dec 15:00.

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