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There is a 75% chance of ES trending downwards

Based on past Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index news events there is a 75% chance of ES trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is > 58. A price movement of 800 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

21 Apr 09:00
12 Nov 10:00
15 Oct 09:00
17 Sep 09:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect 6C to trend downwards today with a 75% chance.

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