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There is a 72.73% chance of SI trending upwards

Based on past Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision news events there is a 72.73% chance of SI trending upwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is = 0.25%. A price movement of 49 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

02 Jun 04:30
05 May 04:30
19 Mar 03:30
04 Feb 03:30
05 Nov 03:30
01 Oct 04:30
03 Sep 04:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect a $0.11 movement on RB within the next 48 hours.

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We expect NIY to trend upwards for the next 2 hours.

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