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There is a 72.73% chance of GC trending upwards

Based on past Euro Area GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est news events there is a 72.73% chance of GC trending upwards. We expect this to happen because the released value is = -3.8%. A price movement of 2,875 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

14 Feb 10:00
14 Aug 09:00
14 Feb 10:00
14 Nov 10:00
14 Feb 10:00
14 Nov 10:00
16 Aug 09:00
16 May 09:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect NG to trend downwards today with a 80% chance.

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We expect a $15,160.6 movement on RTY within 2 hours following the event release at 15 May 12:30.

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