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There is a 66.67% chance of USDCAD trending upwards

Based on past Japan Balance of Trade news events there is a 66.67% chance of USDCAD trending upwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is > ¥420B. A price movement of 9 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

18 Jun 23:50
16 Apr 23:50
17 Oct 23:50
18 Sep 23:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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