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We expect a 34,000 pip movement on NIY within 12 hours following the event release.

Based on the last 12 ECB Interest Rate Decision events in Euro Area, we expect a 34,000 pip movement on NIY within 12 hours following the event release at 03 Feb 12:45 UTC. We expect NIY to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 03 Feb 12:45 UTC if the released value is = 0%

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

16 Dec 12:45
28 Oct 11:45
09 Sep 11:45
22 Apr 11:45
11 Mar 12:45
21 Jan 12:45
10 Dec 12:45
29 Oct 12:45
10 Sep 11:45

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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