Based on the last 12 ECB Interest Rate Decision events in Euro Area, we expect a 34,000 pip movement on NIY within 12 hours following the event release at 03 Feb 12:45 UTC. We expect NIY to trend downwards 12 hours following the event release at 03 Feb 12:45 UTC if the released value is = 0%
Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion
16 Dec 12:45 |
28 Oct 11:45 |
09 Sep 11:45 |
22 Apr 11:45 |
11 Mar 12:45 |
21 Jan 12:45 |
10 Dec 12:45 |
29 Oct 12:45 |
10 Sep 11:45 |
All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).
