We expect a 130 pip movement on USDCAD within 48 hours following the event release.

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect USDCAD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. This may happen if the released value is > ¥-1294.8B

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

15 Mar 23:50

18 Jan 23:50

19 Oct 23:50

18 May 23:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).