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We expect SI to trend downwards for the next 2 hours.

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we expect SI to trend downwards for the next 2 hours. Based on these past events there is a 66.67% chance of this. This may happen because the released value is < ¥942.8B Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

15 Dec 23:50
19 Jul 23:50
20 May 23:50
22 Jan 23:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect a 33,250 pip movement on NIY within 12 hours following the event release.

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