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We expect OJ to trend upwards today with a 75% chance.

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, OJ could trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. If the released value is > ¥-2022.6B we could see OJ trend upwards 48 hours following the event release at 15 Jun 23:50.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

18 May 23:50
17 Aug 23:50
19 May 23:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We may be expecting a $179.28 movement on USDJPY within 12 hours following the event release at 15 Jun 23:50.

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