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We expect NIY to trend upwards with a 80% chance.

Based on past Germany Balance of Trade news events there is a 80% chance of NIY trending upwards. We expect this to happen because the released value is > €15.5B. A price movement of 347 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

08 May 06:00
07 Feb 07:00
09 Jan 07:00
08 Jul 06:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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