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We expect NIY to trend upwards today with a 75% chance.

Based on the last 12 Continuing Jobless Claims events in United States, we expect NIY to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect NIY to trend upwards 4 hours following the event release at 19 Sep 12:30 if the released value is > 1672K. A price movement of 4,750 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

01 Aug 12:30
11 Jul 12:30
03 Jul 12:30
27 Jun 12:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect a 31 pip movement on USDCHF within 4 hours following the event release.

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Be very careful of upcoming volatility. We expect a $21,357.44 movement on RTY.

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