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We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards today with a 70% chance.

Based on the last 12 RBA Interest Rate Decision events in Australia, GBPUSD could trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 70% chance of this. If the released value is = 0.6% we could see GBPUSD trend downwards 2 hours following the event release at 07 Jun 04:30.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

07 Dec 03:30
02 Nov 03:30
05 Oct 03:30
07 Sep 04:30
06 Jul 04:30
01 Jun 04:30
04 May 04:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We may be expecting a $49,191 movement on ES within 2 hours following the event release at 07 Jun 04:30.

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