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We expect EURUSD to trend downwards today with a 80% chance.

Based on the last 12 Retail Sales MoM events in United Kingdom, we expect a $220 movement on EURUSD within 4 hours following the event release at 2025-01-17 07:00. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 2025-01-17 07:00 if the released value is > 0.4%

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

18 Oct 06:00
20 Sep 06:00
21 Jun 06:00
22 Mar 07:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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