Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Canada, we expect ES to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 87.5% chance of this. We expect ES to trend upwards 4 hours following the event release at 2025-05-06 12:30 if the released value is < C$-1.7B. A price movement of 196 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion
03 Apr 12:30 |
05 Feb 13:30 |
05 Dec 13:30 |
05 Nov 13:30 |
08 Oct 12:30 |
04 Sep 12:30 |
03 Jul 12:30 |
All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).
