Based on the last 12 Inflation Rate YoY events in United States, we expect ES to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect ES to trend upwards 48 hours following the event release at 12 May 12:30 if the released value is > 3.6%. A price movement of 6,700 pips is expected.
Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion
13 Apr 12:30 |
10 Dec 13:30 |
11 Sep 12:30 |
12 Aug 12:30 |
All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).
