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We expect EMD to trend upwards today with a 80% chance.

We expect EMD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past United States Retail Sales MoM news events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect this to happen if the released value is < -0.7%. A price movement of 640 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

17 Mar 12:30
14 Feb 13:30
16 Jan 13:30
18 Jun 12:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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