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We expect EMD to trend downwards today with a 80% chance.

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in United States, we expect EMD to trend downwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. This may happen if the released value is > $-44B

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

02 Apr 12:30
06 Mar 13:30
07 Jan 13:30
05 Dec 13:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect a 0 pip movement on 6E within 4 hours following the event release.

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