Based on the last 12 Inflation Rate YoY events in Japan, we expect a 912 pip movement on ES within 2 hours following the event release at 23 Jan 23:30 UTC. We expect ES to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 23 Jan 23:30 UTC if the released value is = 0.4%
Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion
22 Aug 23:30 |
18 Jul 23:30 |
23 May 23:30 |
18 Apr 23:30 |
21 Feb 23:30 |
17 Jan 23:30 |
All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).
