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We expect a 9 pip movement on USDCHF within 2 hours following the event release.

Based on past Germany Balance of Trade news events there is a 75% chance of USDCHF trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is > €17.8B. A price movement of 9 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

07 Feb 07:00
09 Oct 06:00
08 Jul 06:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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