We expect a $472 movement on UB within 48 hours following the release of Balance of Trade.

Based on past Canada Balance of Trade news events there is a 75% chance of UB trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is > C$-1.6B. A price movement of 128 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

07 Jan 13:30

06 Aug 12:30

06 Jun 12:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).