We expect a 304 pip movement on UB within 48 hours following the event release.

Based on past United States Retail Sales MoM news events there is a 75% chance of UB trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is > -0.1%. A price movement of 304 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

15 Feb 13:30

15 Sep 12:30

15 Jul 12:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).