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There is a 85.71% chance of USDCAD trending upwards

We expect USDCAD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past Canada Balance of Trade news events there is a 85.71% chance of this. We expect this to happen if the released value is < C$-5.8B. A price movement of 195 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

05 Jun 12:30
03 Apr 12:30
05 Feb 13:30
05 Dec 13:30
05 Nov 13:30
08 Oct 12:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect ZB to trend upwards today with a 71.43% chance.

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