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There is a 80% chance of SM trending downwards

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Japan, we could see SM trend downwards right now. Based on historical events there is a 80% chance of this. This may happen because the released value is > ¥-513.6B

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

17 Jun 23:50
16 Apr 23:50
22 Jan 23:50
17 Dec 23:50

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect a $1490 movement on GBPUSD within 48 hours following the release of Balance of Trade.

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