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There is a 80% chance of NZDUSD trending upwards

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Canada, we expect NZDUSD to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 80% chance of this. We expect NZDUSD to trend upwards 4 hours following the event release at 2024-12-05 13:30 if the released value is > C$-0.8B. A price movement of 35 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

06 Aug 12:30
06 Jun 12:30
04 Apr 12:30
07 Mar 13:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect YM to trend upwards today with a 80% chance.

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We expect a 37 pip movement on USDJPY within 4 hours following the event release.

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