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There is a 75% chance of HG trending downwards

Based on past Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision news events there is a 75% chance of HG trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is = -0.1%. A price movement of 21 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

21 Jan 03:00
18 Dec 03:45
29 Oct 03:00
15 Jul 03:00
16 Jun 02:45
27 Apr 04:00
16 Mar 05:00
21 Jan 03:00
19 Dec 03:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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Live Cattle JUNE 2021 moves lower to 115.875 in the last 4 days.

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GER30 has broken through resistance of a Triangle. It has touched this line at least twice in the last 8 days.

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