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There is a 72.73% chance of ES trending upwards

Based on the last 12 Fed Interest Rate Decision events in United States, we could see a 258 pip movement on ES for the next 12 hours. ES could trend upwards for 12 hours because the released value is = 4.5%

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

29 Jan 19:00
07 Nov 19:00
31 Jul 18:00
12 Jun 18:00
01 May 18:00
20 Mar 18:00
13 Dec 19:00
01 Nov 18:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect GBPUSD to trend downwards with a 72.73% chance.

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