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There is a 71.43% chance of EURUSD trending downwards

Based on the last 12 Balance of Trade events in Australia, we expect a $170 movement on EURUSD within 4 hours following the event release at 2025-10-02 01:30. We expect EURUSD to trend downwards 4 hours following the event release at 2025-10-02 01:30 if the released value is > A$6.2B

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

04 Sep 01:30
01 May 01:30
06 Mar 00:30
09 Jan 00:30
03 Oct 01:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect GF to trend downwards today with a 71.43% chance.

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