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There is a 66.67% chance of SI trending upwards

Based on past Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision news events there is a 66.67% chance of SI trending upwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is = 0.1%. A price movement of 327 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

06 Apr 04:30
02 Mar 03:30
01 Dec 03:30
03 Nov 03:30
04 Aug 04:30
07 Jul 04:30
05 May 04:30
19 Mar 03:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect a 6,994 pip movement on RTY for the next 12 hours.

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