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There is a 66.67% chance of NIY trending downwards

Based on past Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash news events there is a 66.67% chance of NIY trending downwards. We expect this to happen if the released value is > 56.5. A price movement of 84,000 pips is expected.

Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

23 Oct 07:30
23 Sep 07:30
23 Jun 07:30
24 Mar 08:30
21 Feb 08:30
24 Jan 08:30

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We expect a $0 movement on RU within 48 hours following the event release at 23 Nov 08:30.

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GER30 – breach of a trending resistance line that has been tested at least twice before.

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