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We may see HG trend downwards today with a 80% chance.

HG could trend downwards later today. Based on these past United Kingdom Unemployment Rate news events there is a 80% chance of this. This could happen only if the released value is < 3.8%. The price movement may be as big as 3 pips. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

15 Mar 07:00
18 Jan 07:00
17 Aug 06:00
18 May 06:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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We could see a 3,212 pip movement on ES within 48 hours following this event release.

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