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We expect S to trend upwards today with a 75% chance.

Based on the last 12 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI events in United States, we expect S to trend upwards later today. Based on these past events there is a 75% chance of this. We expect S to trend upwards 2 hours following the event release at 05 May 14:00 if the released value is < 64.3. A price movement of 775 pips is expected. Historical events that allowed us to draw this conclusion

03 Mar 15:00
03 Dec 15:00
04 Nov 15:00

All references to movement sizes are expressed assuming a lot size of 100,000 units (“standard account”).

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